Methodology & honesty notes
This is a strategy heuristic, not an appraisal. Neighborhood scores (0–100) blend measured data with curated judgment; use it to rank where to look, then underwrite block-by-block.
What's measured
Zoning mix — computed by polygon intersection from the City of Philadelphia zoning shapefile (2012 base-code vintage; remapping since then means treat edges as approximate). "Zoning fit" = similarity of a neighborhood's residential/commercial/industrial/ICMX blend to Fishtown's — your stated template of a working mixed fabric.
Appreciation — Zillow decade figures (e.g. Brewerytown +257%, Point Breeze +404%) and Redfin medians (Fishtown $372K, −8.6% YoY, Nov 2025).
Drug-market friction — zip-level overdose fatality data (Phila. Dept. of Public Health via Inquirer/Billy Penn reporting): 19134 highest; 19140/19132/19143 rising; citywide declining since the 2022–23 peak.
What's judgment
Momentum, arts gravity, access, and hot-core adjacency are 0–100 ratings grounded in permit patterns, corridor observation, and venue mapping — visible and editable in data.js.
What's deliberately excluded
Racial composition is not an input. It isn't a causal driver of appreciation, and screening investment by neighborhood demographics is redlining logic (and Fair-Housing-adjacent legal risk). The mechanisms it proxies — income momentum, tenure mix, vacancy absorption — are what the measured inputs capture.
Composite formula
Forecast = w₁·ValueGap + w₂·Momentum + w₃·ZoningFit + w₄·Arts + w₅·Access − w₆·Friction, weights adjustable in the panel (defaults 25/20/20/15/10/−10, renormalized).
Venue & listing pins are approximate (±1 block). Data assembled Aug 5, 2026. Refresh parcel data with the included refresh-data.py.